Paul Rosenzweig - Red Branch Consulting

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Crowd Forecasting to Enhance Cybersecurity

Apr 13, 2022

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Abstract

For at least two decades, the U.S. intelligence community and special projects agencies have been exploring the potential of prediction markets and crowd-forecasting platforms to better forecast geopolitical and technical trends. Similarly, a number of prominent corporations, including Google, Ford, Yahoo, Hewlett-Packard, and Eli Lilly, have likewise turned to these tools to predict everything from which product lines will be most profitable to whether a deadline is likely to be met. Yet despite this seeming opportunity, there remains a significant gap: almost nobody has deployed the tools for crowd-forecasting to cybersecurity problems.

We propose to change that paradigm. We believe that a cybersecurity-focused forecasting market can create useful value-added information for decision-makers. To test this hypothesis we have begun a small beta test applying the principles of crowd-forecasting directly to a set of cybersecurity questions.

This talk will provide background on the use of crowd-forecasting for policy and discuss some interim results of the ongoing beta test.

About the Speaker

Paul Rosenzweig is the founder of Red Branch Consulting PLLC, a homeland security consulting company. He is also a Senior Advisor to The Chertoff Group. Mr. Rosenzweig formerly served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy in the Department of Homeland Security. He is a Professorial Lecturer in Law at George Washington University, and a Senior Fellow in the Tech, Law &Security Program at the American University, Washington College of Law. He serves as an advisor to and former member of the American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security,and a Contributing Editor of the Lawfare blog. He is a member of the ABA Cybersecurity Legal Task Force and of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Advisory Committee on Admissions and Grievances. He serves, as well, as a Hearing Committee Member of the District of Columbia Board of Professional Responsibility. In 2011 he was a Carnegie Fellow in National Security Journalism at the Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University.

Mr. Rosenzweig is a cum laude graduate of the University of Chicago Law School. He has an M.S. in Chemical Oceanography from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego and a B.A from Haverford College. Following graduation from law school he served as a law clerk to the Honorable R. Lanier Anderson, III of the United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit.

He is the author of Cyber Warfare: How Conflicts in Cyberspace are Challenging America and Changing the World and of three video lecture series from The Great Courses, Thinking About Cybersecurity: From Cyber Crime to Cyber Warfare; The Surveillance State: Big Data, Freedom,and You; and Investigating American Presidents.

He is the co-author (with James Jay Carafano) of Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom and co-editor (with Jill D. Rhodes and Robert S. Litt) of the Cybersecurity Handbook (3rd ed.). He is also co-editor (with Timothy McNulty and Ellen Shearer) of two books, Whistleblowers, Leaks and the Media: The First Amendment and National Security, and National Security Law in the News: A Guide for Journalists, Scholars,and Policymakers. Mr. Rosenzweig is a member of the Literary Society of Washington.

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