Global and Distributed Reproduction Numbers of a Multilayer SIR Model with an Infrastructure Network
Primary Investigator:
Philip Paré
Jose I. Caiza, Junjie Qin, Philip E. Pare
Abstract
In this paper, we propose an SIR virus model in a user network coupled with an infrastructure network that has a virus spreading in it. We develop a threshold condition to characterize the monotonicity and peak time of a weighted average of the infection states in terms of the global (network-wide) effective reproduction number. We further, define the distributed reproduction numbers (DRNs) of each node in the multilayer network which are used to provide local threshold conditions for the dynamical behavior of each entity. Furthermore, we leverage the DRNs to predict the global behavior based on the node-level assumptions. We use both analytical and simulation results to illustrate that the DRNs allow a more accurate analysis of the networked spreading process than the global effective reproduction number.